Can Karlos Nasar Lose at the 2026 World Championships?

One year ago, asking if Karlos Nasar could lose would have sounded pretty stupid.

At the 2025 European Championships, he snatched 188kg and clean and jerked 229kg for a 417kg total.

He won by 38kg.

Nobody was close.

Now, the question does not sound quite as ridiculous.

Karlos is still the favourite heading into the 2026 World Weightlifting Championships in Ningbo. But after two competitions well below his best, and with three serious challengers emerging, he might finally need to arrive in top shape to guarantee the win.

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The slogan has always been simple: I win. You lose.

At Worlds, Karlos may actually have to prove it.

Karlos Has Not Looked Like Karlos

Calling Karlos Nasar's recent results bad would be ridiculous.

He became world champion in 2025 with 173kg in the snatch and 222kg in the clean and jerk. Then, at the 2026 European Championships, he won again with 176kg and 210kg.

Most weightlifters would take those results without thinking twice.

But Karlos is not most weightlifters.

His totals have fallen from 417kg at the 2025 Europeans, to 395kg at Worlds, and then 386kg at the 2026 Europeans.

That latest performance was 31kg below his best.

There are obvious reasons not to panic. Karlos was competing with a new coach and support team at Europeans, and we already know his ceiling is much higher than anyone else's. If he gets anywhere close to his best, this probably stops being a discussion.

But if he totals 386kg again?

This time, there are several lifters who can beat him.

Ali Alipour Is the Biggest Threat

The clearest danger is Iran's Ali Alipour.

At a recent Iranian national team test event, Alipour snatched 180kg and clean and jerked 223kg for an unofficial 403kg total.

Training lifts and test events are not the World Championships. But 403kg is still 8kg above what Karlos totalled at the last Worlds and 17kg above his result at the 2026 Europeans.

Alipour does not need to match Karlos's 417kg best. He only needs to stay around 400kg and hope that Karlos remains below his best.

For the first time, that does not sound impossible.

Keydomar Keeps Getting Better

Keydomar Vallenilla is not a new name. He is an Olympic silver medallist, a former world champion and one of the most experienced lifters in the category.

What is new is his recent progress.

Keydomar totalled 389kg at the 2026 Pan American Championships with 177kg and 212kg. He has since clean and jerked 220kg at the Venezuelan National Championships.

He may not have Karlos's absolute ceiling, but he is getting stronger at exactly the right time. And unlike a new lifter suddenly producing huge numbers, Keydomar already knows how to win on a major international stage.

If the competition becomes messy, that matters.

And Then There Is Nurgissa Adiletuly

Nurgissa Adiletuly is the hardest man to predict.

He totalled 400kg at the 2023 Asian Championships, before winning the 2024 World Championships with 388kg. Since then, it has been difficult to know exactly what shape he is in.

Recent signs suggest he may be returning to something close to his best form. Whether that translates to a big total at 94kg is another question.

That makes him the outsider of this group.

But an outsider who has already totalled 400kg and won a world title is not someone Karlos can completely ignore.

Does Karlos Still Win?

Probably.

Karlos remains the most talented lifter in the category and the only man here who has shown a 417kg level in competition. Even a return to the 404kg he totalled at the Paris Olympics would most likely be enough.

But the version of Karlos we saw at the 2026 Europeans is no longer guaranteed anything.

A 386kg total could now put him behind Alipour. Behind Keydomar. Possibly behind Adiletuly too.

That is what makes the 2026 World Championships different.

For years, the question was not whether Karlos would win. It was which world record he would attempt after securing gold.

In Ningbo, he may finally have a real fight before he gets that far.

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“I Win, You Lose” has never needed much explanation.

This year, it might finally need a performance.